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Minst fem goda skäl att vara klimatoptimist 2018

I Sverige är klimatförändringar det som oroar befolkningen allra mest och den fråga som de yngre väljarna ser som allra viktigast. Det är en starkt positiv signal inför valet den 9 september, skriver Mattias Goldmann, vd för tankesmedjan Fores.

För att hejda klimatförändringarna måste utsläppen minska snabbt och kraftfullt. Det skedde inte 2017. Klimatpåverkan ökade globalt, en klimatskeptiker tillträdde som president i USA och den minskning av utsläpp som skett i Sverige bromsade in. Men samtidigt lades grunden för att 2018 kan – och måste – bli ett positivt år för klimatet.

Det finns minst fem goda skäl att vara klimatoptimist 2018:

 1. Ingen tror längre att klimatförändringarna upphör av sig själva. 2017 års ökade utsläpp är en viktig signal inför FN:s årliga stora klimatmöte, inför EU:s slutförhandlingar om gemensamma energiregler och för Sveriges politiker som ska omvandla den klimatlag som trädde i kraft vid årsskiftet till konkreta utsläppsminskningar.

2. Kampen om vilket land som ska leda klimatomställningen hårdnar. När USA under president Trump bestämde sig för att agera bromskloss i klimatarbetet, klev Kina fram för att fylla tomrummet. Men konkurrensen om ledarskap är hård; Indiens mål är att inga bilar i landet ska drivas med fossilt bränsle år 2032. För Sverige betyder det att nästa steg hastar. Det ledarskap näringslivet efterfrågar kräver snabba utsläppsminskningar – inte bara ambitiösa mål.

3. Förnybart får långsiktiga förutsättningar. Internationella energiorganet IEA anger att ”vi bevittnar nu början av en ny era”; merparten av all ny el är förnybar: sol, vind, vattenkraft och biomassa. Och det beror allt mindre på subventioner och bidrag och alltmer på långsiktiga spelregler som en garanterad prisnivå för den som producerar el.

4. Kapitalet satsar grönt. Norges oljefond, som ensam är mer värd än alla oljetillgångar i världen, är en av många som valt att flytta pengar från olja och fossilgas till klimatmässigt mindre riskabla områden. Även Shell och Statoil rekordinvesterar grönt. Som svensk finns det anledning att kritiskt granska hur de statliga pensionsfonderna förvaltas; stora summor finns kvar i det fossila vilket klimatmässigt är tveksamt och därtill innebär en allt större risk för att den avkastning som krävs för att trygga pensionerna inte uppnås.

5. Alltfler agerar på egen hand. Efter att Trump valts till USA:s president insåg amerikanska delstater, städer och företag att de måste agera på egen hand i klimatfrågan. Samma sak sker i land efter land, inte minst inom näringslivet som blivit en stark garant för att tillfälliga politiska nycker inte innebär alltför stora tempotapp i klimatarbetet.

Goldman säger avslutningsvis: ”Klimatförändringarna hejdas inte av sig själva, det krävs starkt och samlat arbete. Och i sin tur att man vågar tro att klimatkampen går att vinna. Därför är 2018 års positiva klimatsignaler så viktiga.”

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